Peak Streamflow Trends in North Dakota and Their Relation to Changes in Climate, Water Years 1921–2020
Links
- Document: Report (10 MB pdf) , HTML , XML
- Larger Work: This publication is Chapter H of Peak streamflow trends and their relation to changes in climate in Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wisconsin
- Dataset: USGS National Water Information System database - USGS water data for the Nation
- Data Releases:
- USGS data release - Peak streamflow data, climate data, and results from investigating hydroclimatic trends and climate change effects on peak streamflow in the Central United States, 1921–2020
- USGS data release - USGS monthly water balance model inputs and outputs for the conterminous United States, 1895–2020, based on ClimGrid data
- Download citation as: RIS | Dublin Core
Abstract
Standardized guidelines for completing flood-flow frequency analyses are presented in a U.S. Geological Survey Techniques and Methods report known as Bulletin 17C, https://doi.org/10.3133/tm4B5. In recent decades (since about 2000), a better understanding of long-term climatic persistence (periods of clustered floods or droughts, or wet or dry periods) and concerns about potential climate change and land-use change have caused a reexamination of the stationarity assumptions underlying methods in Bulletin 17C. Bulletin 17C does not offer guidance on incorporating nonstationarities and further identifies a need for flood-frequency studies that incorporate changing climate or basin characteristics. As part of that reexamination, a study of annual peak streamflow (peak flow) has begun in the Midwest. This chapter of the study summarizes how hydroclimatic variability affects peak flows in North Dakota.
In this analysis of peak flow, daily streamflow, and climate metrics, four periods were selected: (1) a 100-year period, 1921–2020; (2) a 75-year period, 1946–2020; (3) a 50-year period, 1971–2020; and (4) a 30-year period, 1991–2020. Output from a monthly water-balance model was used for the climate data. Statistical analysis of peak flow consisted of evaluations of autocorrelation, trends, and change points and was augmented with analyses of seasonality and daily streamflow. The long-term pattern of decreasing peak flow in the west and increasing peak flow in the east is a pattern of opposing signals on either side of the 100th meridian. Analyses indicate that a key factor in changing hydroclimatology is the increase in fall precipitation. The trends in soil moisture closely match the trends in annual precipitation. Nonstationary flood-frequency analysis necessitates detailed exploratory data analysis and additional data and information about climate, land use, and other factors. This study provides extensive exploratory analysis for peak flow, daily streamflow, and climate data for North Dakota, setting the stage for informed nonstationary flood-frequency analysis.
Suggested Citation
Ryberg, K.R., and Williams-Sether, T., 2025, Peak streamflow trends in North Dakota and their relation to changes in climate, water years 1921–2020, chap. H of Ryberg, K.R., comp., Peak streamflow trends and their relation to changes in climate in Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wisconsin: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2023–5064, 80 p., https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20235064H.
ISSN: 2328-0328 (online)
Study Area
Table of Contents
- Acknowledgments
- Abstract
- Introduction
- History of U.S. Geological Survey Peak-Flow Data Collection in North Dakota
- History of Statistical Analysis of Peak Flow and Nonstationarity
- Review of Research Relating to Climatic Variability and Change
- Data
- Methods
- Results of Streamflow and Climate Analyses
- Summary
- References Cited
| Publication type | Report |
|---|---|
| Publication Subtype | USGS Numbered Series |
| Title | Peak streamflow trends in North Dakota and their relation to changes in climate, water years 1921–2020 |
| Series title | Scientific Investigations Report |
| Series number | 2023-5064 |
| Chapter | H |
| DOI | 10.3133/sir20235064H |
| Publication Date | March 04, 2025 |
| Year Published | 2025 |
| Language | English |
| Publisher | U.S. Geological Survey |
| Publisher location | Reston, VA |
| Contributing office(s) | Dakota Water Science Center |
| Description | Report: ix, 80 p.; 2 Data Releases; 1 Dataset |
| Country | United States |
| State | North Dakota |
| Online Only (Y/N) | Y |
| Additional Online Files (Y/N) | N |
| Google Analytic Metrics | Metrics page |