Equilibrium line altitudes, accumulation areas, and the vulnerability of glaciers in Alaska
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Abstract
The accumulation area ratio (AAR) of a glacier reflects its current state of equilibrium, or disequilibrium, with climate and its vulnerability to future climate change. Here, we present an inventory of glacier-specific annual accumulation areas and equilibrium line altitudes (ELAs) for over 3000 glaciers in Alaska and northwest Canada (88% of the regional glacier area) from 2018 to 2022 derived from Sentinel-2 imagery. We find that the 5 year average AAR of the entire study area is 0.41, with an inter-annual range of 0.25–0.49. More than 1000 glaciers, representing 8% of the investigated glacier area, were found to have effectively no accumulation area. Summer temperature and winter precipitation from ERA5-Land explained nearly 50% of the inter-annual ELA variability across the entire study region (R2 = 0.47). An analysis of future climate scenarios (SSP2-4.5) projects that ELAs will rise by ∼170 m on average by the end of the 21st century. Such changes would result in a loss of 25% of the modern accumulation area, leaving a total of 1900 glaciers (22% of the investigated area) with no accumulation area. These results highlight the current state of glacier disequilibrium with modern climate, as well as glacier vulnerability to projected future warming.
Study Area
| Publication type | Article |
|---|---|
| Publication Subtype | Journal Article |
| Title | Equilibrium line altitudes, accumulation areas, and the vulnerability of glaciers in Alaska |
| Series title | Journal of Glaciology |
| DOI | 10.1017/jog.2024.65 |
| Volume | 71 |
| Publication Date | April 07, 2025 |
| Year Published | 2025 |
| Language | English |
| Publisher | Cambridge University Press |
| Contributing office(s) | Alaska Science Center |
| Description | e28, 13 p. |
| Country | United States |
| State | Alaska |